Tag COVID-19

“A very bad recipe”

Prof. John Ioannidis of Stanford says the early estimates of the coronavirus’s deadlines were greatly exaggerated. It would be good news if demonstrably true, which it neither is nor can be, as the professor admits: “I love models… I do…

A simple asymmetry

Suppose the number of people infected grows exponentially with time as $latex ce^{rt} &s=0$. Consider two cases: in the first, the true rate is less than r by δ percent; in the second, it is greater than r by δ…

Whatever slows it down

OK, if you insist that COVID-19 is just like the flu, I could agree if you dropped “just.” It’s like the flu, sort of – but much deadlier and, in all likelihood, more contagious. I’ve seen the COVID-19 mortality rate…