Tag Ioannidis

“A very bad recipe”

Prof. John Ioannidis of Stanford says the early estimates of the coronavirus’s deadlines were greatly exaggerated. It would be good news if demonstrably true, which it neither is nor can be, as the professor admits: “I love models… I do…

A simple asymmetry

Suppose the number of people infected grows exponentially with time as . Consider two cases: in the first, the true rate is less than r by δ percent; in the second, it is greater than r by δ percent. The…