Posts Tagged ‘OPEC’

  1. A Matter of CapEx


    December 17, 2016 by AK

    Ronald Smith, also known as Ron Smith, Citigroup’s oil and gas analyst covering Russia and the CIS, argues in the Financial Times (if you cannot access it, try googling the title and reading Google’s cache) that Russia is likely to stick to its pledge to cut 300,000 bpd next year: First, Russia reportedly played a …
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  2. “What falleth, that shall one also push”


    December 4, 2016 by AK

    Almost two months ago, in October 2016, I wrote that Russian oil companies could reduce their daily oil output by slowing down production growth at newly launched fields and by reinvesting less in mature fields, increasing their decline rate to a number high enough to translate into a decrease in the national output. Now that Russia …
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  3. “No more growth” is the message?


    November 13, 2016 by AK

    OPEC expects Russia to produce at the same average rate in 2017 as in 2016, which means a slight decrease from the current daily output. The IEA acknowledges that, if Russia can continue pumping at the same rate as in October, it should add 0.2 mmbpd in 2017, just short of 2% on 2016. For the time …
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  4. OPEC makes sense of Russia. Kashagan flows again.


    October 12, 2016 by AK

    OPEC has updated its forecast for Russia’s 2016 output, raising it by 0.05 mmbpd to 11.04 mmbpd, implying 1.7% growth y-o-y. (OPEC seems to be using a conversion rate of 7.4 barrels per ton while most Russia-watchers use 7.3.) This is a little more conservative than the Russian government’s latest estimate, 2%. For 2017, OPEC’s …
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  5. A painless cut


    October 11, 2016 by AK

    Bloomberg cites Putin supporting a universal oil freeze: “Russia is ready to join in joint measures to limit output and calls on other oil exporters to do the same,” Putin said on Monday at the World Energy Congress in Istanbul. “In the current situation, we think that a freeze or even a cut in oil …
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  6. The IEA, like OPEC, seems too cautious on Russian crude output in 4Q


    September 30, 2016 by AK

    On Sept. 15, three days after OPEC published its latest monthly report, I suggested that the cartel’s forecasters might be underestimating Russia’s output and overestimating Kashagan’s in the fourth quarter. From Russian preliminary data, September output looks close to 11.1 mmbpd, up from 10.7 mmbpd in August and from the all-time high 10.9 mmbpd in January 2016. …
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  7. Just not now, or, Time to pump and time to cap


    September 21, 2016 by AK

    One of the field launches I mentioned in the final paragraphs of this post: President Vladimir Putin will watch the launch of the Vostochno-Messoyakha field, jointly developed by Rosneft and Gazprom Neft, via a video link… Russia’s oil output is seen rising 2.2 percent this year, above expectations, to reach almost a 30-year high of …
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  8. Upbeat on Kashagan, is OPEC missing Russian growth?


    September 15, 2016 by AK

    The Financial Times on the long-awaited launch of the Caspian offshore field, Kashagan: The Kashagan oilfield in Kazakhstan, which has earned the unfortunate nickname “cash-all-gone” due to a series of expensive overruns, is now scheduled to finally start up in October, pouring more oil into a heavily oversupplied market. Read more about the megaproject of the …
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