OPEC expects Russia to produce at the same average rate in 2017 as in 2016, which means a slight decrease from the current daily output. The IEA acknowledges that, if Russia can continue pumping at the same rate as in October, it should add 0.2 mmbpd in 2017, just short of 2% on 2016.
For the time being, Russian output has stabilized after a period of growth in September and October. However, if the launch of two new pipelines has been delayed for commercial and regulatory reasons, one wonders if, once they are put into operation, production could start growing again. In other words, when Russia says it’s only ready to freeze, it could mean it’s ready to stop this pending growth, effectively cutting down some from the 2017 rate Russia is projecting for itself – from a higher level than either OPEC or the IEA have in mind.