OPEC makes sense of Russia. Kashagan flows again.


October 12, 2016 by AK

OPEC has updated its forecast for Russia’s 2016 output, raising it by 0.05 mmbpd to 11.04 mmbpd, implying 1.7% growth y-o-y. (OPEC seems to be using a conversion rate of 7.4 barrels per ton while most Russia-watchers use 7.3.) This is a little more conservative than the Russian government’s latest estimate, 2%. For 2017, OPEC’s forecast is flat while Russia projects an uptick of less than 1%. It makes sense now.

No changes on Kashagan projections from last month, except for a slight downgrade for 4Q17. Kazakhstan’s energy minister said earlier today that oil had just started flowing from four wells, at about 90,000 bpd, to the processing plant and into storage tanks. Officially, it seems the field and plant are still being tested. We should see how it goes, and pretty soon.


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