Red Dawn?

There’s a rumor in Kyiv and Moscow that the full-scale Russian invasion of Crimea will begin within hours. The Russian Channel 1 has canceled a live broadcast of the Oscar ceremony citing the need to update viewers on Ukraine/Crimea. Apparently they are out to show Russian tanks rolling across the steppes of Crimea to be greeted with flowers in Simferopol.

Of course the invasion has been going on for a few days but so far we’ve seen relatively small groups of Russian servicemen in unmarked uniforms taking control of key points and installations. That job done, nothing would stand in the way of Russian PVCs, APCs, and tanks.


  1. My guess is they’re still trying to starve out the few remaining Ukrainian military bases before they send in the heavy stuff and the soldiers wearing Russian insignia. Then they can have a nice victory parade without the embarrassment of body bags coming home. Putin is still hoping to take the Crimea bloodlessly. At the moment there’s too much of a chance of a shooting match between the remaining Ukrainian soldiers and the “unidentified gunmen” besieging them. Once the Ukrainian army in Crimea has been neutralised, the official Russian military will move in, there will be a referendum at the end of the month with probably a 90% (i.e. rigged to make doubly sure) vote in favour of independence (or union with Russia, although that’s a riskier option diplomatically). Crimea will then exist in the same kind of international legal limbo as South Ossetia. If it votes for “independence”, then Russia will recognise it as well as a few places Putin has bribed such as Nicaragua and Nauru. That’s if things go to schedule…

  2. I hope the degenerate whiners in Western Ukraine get beat down. Maybe that will serve as an example for the effete liberal crybabies in Russia.

    Putin’s twice the man that Obama or McCain ever could be.

  3. So it looks like the Ukrainian soldiers and sailors in Crimea haven’t followed the plan and surrendered. They are also unlikely to be starved out before the end of the month. So Putin has had his puppet regime in Crimea speed up the annexation schedule. After the “union with Russia”, they can then declare that the Ukrainian military still in Crimea are the real “occupying force”.

    • they can then declare that the Ukrainian military still in Crimea are the real “occupying force”

      That’s possible now, no matter how absurd. I didn’t expect today’s independence vote and the instant referendum.

  4. A minor footnote to this crisis is how is Edward Snowden going to react? Or Julian Assange? I’m curious, especially given we’ve already seen two Russia Today journalists protest against their own channel’s coverage of events. Does Assange still have a show on RT?

    • My guess is Snowden will be kept silent and Assange will say something broadly pro-Russian. No specifics though.

      • BTW I’ve set up a blog here:

        I’ve posted some longer comments about Ukraine and some links.

        (For complicated reasons – mainly my own incompetence – my pseudonym there is currently “Terry Lennox”, but I’ll try to change it to JCass if possible).

          • Thanks. I’ll try to set up my own blogroll at some point. (I’m really having to relearn everything about the technical side of blogging).

  5. Also, Navalny’s house arrest and lack of access to the Internet for two months might indicate how much time Putin has “budgeted” for this crisis (although, of course, Navalny’s punishment can be extended at will).

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