August 10, 2016 by AK
According to the preliminary data by the Russian energy statistics agency, in July 2016 Russia produced 45.9 million tons of crude oil and condensate, which translates into 1.48 million tons per day (10.8 mmbpd assuming 7.3 barrels per ton). According to the latest daily data and a chart on the agency’s site (free registration required), daily output has been down this August from the end-July levels. On August 5-9, daily output rates were about 40,000 tons per day (290,000 bpd) below their July average, a decline of 2.7%. It is also a 1.2% decrease on the August 2015 average rate.
I have no idea why this is happening other than well repairs and workovers and possibly infrastructure maintenance. For the sake of comparison, ConocoPhillips’ Alpine field on the Alaska North Slope went into a maintenance shutdown in July and its output dwindled accordingly from more than 50,000 bpd to zero in two days. Last week, it was back in operation, output shooting from zero to 66,000 bpd also in two days. The extent of this swing was less than a quarter of Russia’s August-over-July decline, but the North Slope’s daily oil production is about 1/20th of Russia’s.
Observers with deeper pockets will probably have the answers outright: one can subscribe to an official daily production bulletin with a breakdown by company and subsidiary.