Tillerson 2

If I were to respond to this piece, I’d probably make these points:

  1. Exxon has always negotiated with Moscow from a position of strength. Can you say this of the other majors with tangible Russian exposure – BP, Shell and Total?
  2. Exxon’s only major active project in Russia is Sakhalin-1, which contributes less than 1.5% to its total output. Compare the share of output from Russia for the other three majors:
    • BP: 30% via its 20% share in Rosneft. (1 million boepd out of 3.3.)
    • Total: 12% in 2015, mostly via its 19% in Novatek (0.29 out of 2.3 mmboepd).
    • Shell: 4% via Sakhalin-2 and Western Siberia (0.15 out of 3.6 mmboepd). It used to be higher but the recent addition of BG watered down Russia’s share.
  3. Exxon’s Arctic JV with Rosneft would have been written off due to the oil price dip, sanctions or no sanctions.
  4. Assuming Exxon did write off $1 bln in Russia after the sanctions, it’s a whopping 0.3% of its market cap of $370 billion.

One comment

Comments are closed.

Discover more from Winterings in Trans-Scythia

Subscribe now to keep reading and get access to the full archive.

Continue reading