If I were to respond to this piece, I’d probably make these points:
- Exxon has always negotiated with Moscow from a position of strength. Can you say this of the other majors with tangible Russian exposure – BP, Shell and Total?
- Exxon’s only major active project in Russia is Sakhalin-1, which contributes less than 1.5% to its total output. Compare the share of output from Russia for the other three majors:
- BP: 30% via its 20% share in Rosneft. (1 million boepd out of 3.3.)
- Total: 12% in 2015, mostly via its 19% in Novatek (0.29 out of 2.3 mmboepd).
- Shell: 4% via Sakhalin-2 and Western Siberia (0.15 out of 3.6 mmboepd). It used to be higher but the recent addition of BG watered down Russia’s share.
- Exxon’s Arctic JV with Rosneft would have been written off due to the oil price dip, sanctions or no sanctions.
- Assuming Exxon did write off $1 bln in Russia after the sanctions, it’s a whopping 0.3% of its market cap of $370 billion.